In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Obama is clinging to a 49% approval rating in the Buckeye state and carrying a 44% disapproval rate. Perhaps it is a matter of Ohio’s dismal unemployment numbers – 10.8%.

While Congress passes more job eliminating legislation, Ohioans understand that the policies of Obama, Reid, Pelosi, and T-Shirt Ted are failures for their families.

This Ohioian is firmly entrenched in that 44%. If Obama were to somehow all of a sudden raise his magical hands and create Utopia, I would still be in that number that disapproves. Because he is a short-cutting charlatan. The problem is, Ohio, and America as a whole, are just now finding that out.

I can’t wait for his national numbers to follow Ohio’s into the tank. Because they will.

Hat Tip: Commentary Magazine

Share on Facebook

Tweet This Post

For a time, many thought it might but cracks in the system are already being seen. These cracks are instructive as a lesson on how Obamacare will crash and burn just like Romneycare is now in the process of doing.

One of the early claims that helped push Romneycare through to law was the insistence by its supporters that Emergency Room visits would fall as more and more citizens became covered under healthcare insurance. Since ER care is far more expensive than a doctor’s care, it was thought that more people with insurance would ease the overcrowding of ERs as well as lower the overall costs of healthcare.

However, a flaw in this logic has been seen throughout the state. As more people became insured, more people demanded the care of doctors. These doctors became overloaded with patients and waiting lists for doctors got longer and longer. As a result, ERs in Massachusetts have not seen a downturn in visits. On the contrary, it seems that ER visits are actually on the upswing in the Bay State. In fact, in 2007 they were higher than the national average by 20 percent.

Then there is another problem unaccounted for by the politicians. You see these citizens newly covered were given no reason to worry that the costs at an Emergency Room are higher than just waiting for their doctors to have room on their schedules to see them. So, off to the ER they went. After all, it’s covered!

Additionally, after initial gains in “reducing care barriers and boosting affordability,” the system is showing signs of reverses in areas that were thought to have been “fixed” by Romneycare.

The percentage of non-elderly adults that claimed they were not getting the care they want initially dipped but as of June of 2009 that success has been reversed back to 2007 levels. The reason? Not enough doctors for the increased demand.

The recent uptick in access issues may be due to increased demand for follow-up care from the newly insured that is not being matched by available doctors, according to the article’s authors. Most of those surveyed who reported problems said they were told by physicians they were not accepting new patients or patients with their type of coverage.

The simple fact of the matter is that there are only so many doctors and they are beginning to be so overloaded that they cannot or will not see new patients.

The same report also shows that some gains in affordability have eroded.

And then the recession hit the state’s tax receipts causing the state to reduce its expenditures to its healthcare plan by $100 million. And guess who was hardest hit? The poorest residents, exactly the sort of people that universal healthcare is supposed to help.

And what has the state started doing to “fix” this latest problem? Price controls, a strategy that has never worked every time it has been tried. And they are considering price controls because costs are skyrocketing.

They’re trying to manage the huge costs of the subsidized middle-class insurance program that is gradually swallowing the state budget. The program provides low- or no-cost coverage to about 165,000 residents, or three-fifths of the newly insured, and is budgeted at $880 million for 2010, a 7.3% single-year increase that is likely to be optimistic. The state’s overall costs on health programs have increased by 42% (!) since 2006.

Simply put the politicians never came clean with the people of Massachusetts about the costs of the plan. All sorts of rosy scenarios were drawn and everyone smiled and backslapped to get these unfunded mandates passed. But now reality is setting in and the system is crashing down around them.

This is the fate of Obamacare on the national level.

but what do the people of Massachusetts think of Romneycare? Do they like it? After all, it is they that are forced to foot the bill and they who will elect more politicians to either kill or continue the plan.

According to the Rasmussen polling service, only 26 percent of Bay Staters think Romneycare is a success. Worse, only 10 percent think that their care has improved while a hefty 53 percent say they’ve seen no change in their own healthcare.

Even on a partisan divide, the plan is not very popular. 49 percent of Democrats in Massachusetts aren’t sure if the program is a success. If even partisan party members can’t go for it in a big way that says an awful lot about how bad this plan is in reality.

The universal plan in Massachusetts is an obvious budget busting failure. Obamacare will be worse.

Share on Facebook

Tweet This Post

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton—return to campaign in Pennsylvania, Rendell told CNN’s Gloria Borger.
Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia. Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state

Of course, if this rumor is true it is because, as Murtha will tell, Pennsylvanians are “racist rednecks”. After all, if he were white he would be up by 15 or 20!

Share on Facebook

Tweet This Post

Pollster John Zogby said the numbers were good news for McCain, and probably reflected a bump following his appearance in the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday.

“For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent. There is no question something has happened,” Zogby said.

He said the Arizona senator appeared to have solidified his support with the Republican base — where 9 out of 10 voters now back him — and was also gaining ground among the independents who may play a decisive role in the November 4 election.

Obama’s lead among independent voters dropped to 8 points on Sunday from 16 points a day earlier.

‘RED FLAGS’

“If that trend continues, it is something that has got to raise red flags for Obama,” Zogby said. “It suggests to me that his outward look of confidence may be as much strategy as it is real.”

We can paint the headlines however we like, but the truth is that the race is going to be super close just like other years. Both candidates know this from their internal polls. Don’t listen to the propaganda about a landslide.

You can count on Biden to reveal what they are seeing internally:

“Mark my words, you’re going to see these polls drop this week,” Biden forecasted. “We got a bump. We’re going to be in good shape. You’re going to see them drop. There’s nothing automatic about this at all.”

Lowering expectations and blaming it on racism all at once, that takes talent.

I’ll add this much as well. I thought McCain was on fire in the last debate. The media, including FOX, gave the win to Obama. I completely disagreed, and I think we may be seeing a bump for McCain from his actual win of the debate.

Also read AJ Strata’s excellent analysis of the polls.…and DJ Drummond’s anaylsis.

Share on Facebook

Tweet This Post

• Va is back to slightly McCain
• Pa. still a dead heat
• New Mexico is back to Barry
• Mac takes over Colorado
• Barry is losing ground in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan
• Mac lost some ground in Florida, West Virginia, Louisiana, and NC (though NC is still solidly GOP)
• NY is back to Barry by 12
• The Welfare State of Washington DC is massively Barry
• Barry lost a bit in Idaho Iowa, though still solidly Barry (woops, brain and fingers did not co-operate)

A big concern, and not just symbolically, is Illinois, Barack’s home state, of course. The margin has been slowly creeping closer, and, with the latest poll, Barry only leads by 6. This is a state that Kerry won by 10, Gore won by 12, Clinton won by 17 in ‘96 and 15 in ‘92. Will Obama lose it? Probably not. But, if he pulls a Gore and loses his home state, very bad, since Illinois accounts for 21 electoral votes.

For the most part, I am ignoring most solidly blue or red states, especially if there is little change.

Share on Facebook

Tweet This Post

Sarah Palin bests Joseph Biden 47% to 44% in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up for the presidency, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

In a Biden vs. Palin race, 84% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats back the Alaskan, and 75% of Democrats and 13% of Republicans support the senator. Unaffiliated voters give Palin the edge 45% to 39%.

And, I understand that most people surveyed thought Biden was really cranky and crusty.

Speaking of polls

• It is dead even in Va. again
• Pennsylvania is a dead heat now (big!)
• Barry’s lead in Colorado is down to 1
• Ohio has stretched to McCain by 4
• Florida has stretched to Mac by 7
• Utah is still massively McCain
• And in New York (drum roll, please), Barry’s lead is down to 5 (B46-M41)

What desperate attack ad will Barry and Co. come up with next cause of this?

Share on Facebook

Tweet This Post

Florida:

Barack Obama could be on the verge of falling out of contention in Florida.
Despite spending an estimated $8-million on campaign ads in America’s biggest battleground state and putting in place the largest Democratic campaign organization ever in Florida, Obama has lost ground over the summer. Florida has moved from a toss-up state to one that clearly leans toward John McCain, fueling speculation about how much longer the Democratic nominee will continue investing so heavily in the state. …
He is farther behind in the state than John Kerry was at this point in 2004, even though McCain began buying Florida TV ads only last week. By this time in 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign had spent $13-million on Florida TV. In the rolling average of Florida polls compiled by the Web site RealClearPolitics.com, Obama has never taken the lead over McCain in Florida, and the latest average shows him behind by 5 percentage points. They were tied in early August.
Four Florida polls came out this week, with one showing a tied race, the others showing McCain leading by 5 to 8 percentage points.

Pennsylvania:

Updated: 9/13/2008
Summary:
McCain – 49.1%
Obama – 44.3%
Not Sure/Other – 6.6%
“This is a classic case of polling as a snapshot in time. We’re turning Pennsylvania purple today, as McCain takes a small edge. But as in Ohio, we are watching this closely and things could change in this classically blue state.”

Hat tip to Hot Air who has more commentary.

Jim Wooten: It’s not over, but it’s getting there and Obama knows it.

Share on Facebook

Tweet This Post

• a 4 point swing from Obama to McCain in New Mexico
• McCain now leads 49-47 in Virginia, which had been a dead heat
• McCain has lost his lead in Florida, making it a dead heat
• Ohio had been B47-M45, now M48-B46. Big swing
• McCain is now only 2 out in Pa.
• Massive swing for McCain in North Dakota, 55-41. It had been a 3 point Obama win
• McCain is only 4 out in Oregon
• Wisconsin and Michigan are tightening, and McCain has it down to 6 in NJ. Had been 9
• Huge swing in Indiana, from a B55-M40 to M45-B43
• Mac has lost a bit in South Dakota, but still leads

And just for reference, the last poll in Illinois, on Aug 12, has it B53-M38. Arizona M44-B36 (Aug 16). Alaska M64-B33 (9/7). Delaware B50-M41 (Feb 28).

Still have some work to do, folks, but, the Palin Effect, and the fact that people are starting to get over the Messiah Effect (at exactly the wrong time for Barry), is changing some dynamics.

All data via Electoral Vote.

Previous data here.

Share on Facebook

Tweet This Post