Super Tuesday Open Thread

Consider this an open thread to have discussion, and link up your analysis to.

Update: Gribbit 0029 EST:

Fox is calling California for Juan MexiCain. That’s all well and good but let us remember that the primary process is the quest for delegates not winning states. If a state like Missouri is winner take all state-wide, then it is about winning the state. But California for one is winner take all by Congressional District.

Because California has gone back to paper ballots, the fact that an estimated 40% of the ballots cast are absentee ballots, and the fact that some absentees weren’t turned in until today, will push back the distribution of delegates from California probably into late Wednesday afternoon.

I cannot be more strong in my emphasis that the key is delegates. The GOP Nomination requires 1,191 delegates.

Winners per The Drudge Report 0037 EST:

CLINTON: AR, AZ, CA, MA, NY, NJ, OK, TN
OBAMA: AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, UT

HUCKABEE: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV
MCCAIN: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK
ROMNEY: CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT

Update: 2337 EST: California is the only thing that can save Mitt. I won’t be up that late.

Update: 2308: Huck takes Tennessee and Georgia, says Fox. Practically a southern sweep, and that says something in itself, which I’m sure he will point out.

Update: Jay 2307 EST:

Huckabee is having a great night. Romney says his campaign will continue, but he really needs California. Huckabee’s Alabama win is now confirmed.

Update: Jay 2245 EST:

The Anchoress emails to remind me that she predicted a brokered convention a while back.

Update: Gribbit 2217 EST

The Huckster, speaking before a crowd of brain dead supporters in Little Rock, said, “this is a 2 man race and we’re in it!” The problem with that statement is that this race is all about the delegate count. The target is 1191 and Huckster has a whole 85 of them according the the AP. Juan MexiCain is in the lead with 337 followed by Mitt Romney with 133. If this is a 2 man race as Huckster says, how does he figure he’s in it when he is 3rd in delegate count?

Next, the Caucus states are just now coming into play. Those states are heavily favored for Romney. And we can’t discount the jewel of the evening - California with 170 delegates. Mitt spend money to buy air-time on Los Angeles area television which covers several Congressional Districts. Since those districts are winner take all by CD and each district carries 3 delegates, California is the key to the evening.

Again, the target is 1191 to secure the nomination. It is looking as if none of these candidates are going to be able to secure those 1191 delegates and a brokered convention is looking more and more likely.

Update: Gribbit 2203 EST

Yes. That is very possible and highly probable when considering influence. There will not be, however, a white horse candidate who is not currently in the race that would get the nomination. That is highly improbable. But there could be some jockeying for delegates among the candidates as well. We can’t forget as well that once the initial vote is taken and there is no clear leader (ie: none of the candidates secures 1191 delegates) the seated delegates are then under no obligation to vote as their state voted. They are free to vote as they see fit.

Update: Jay 2158 EST

If this ends up being a brokered convention, will there be an outside source enter on a white horse? Gingrich? Fred Thompson? Or will we watch the insider McCain make slick deals behind closed doors like we did earlier and throughout his career?

Update: Gribbit 2147 EST

In the 5 states that have been called for Juan MexiCain, he failed to gain a substantial majority anywhere. The biggest win for him has been New Jersey with 55%. His other leads include: CT 51%, DE 46%, IL 49%, NY 50%. These “wins” are hardly substantial. But facts are facts. The race is for delegates to the convention. As Jay expressed in the initial thread, I believe that we are going to have a bargained convention in September. /rant

Update: Jay

Wow! So far its been a shocker of a night for me. Not that McCain is doing well, and the only state Romney has won so far is his home state, but that Huckabee is doing so well. Its tight in Alabama, and many are calling it for Huckabee, plus he won West Virginia with McCain’s help, and Arkansas. Its tight between Huckabee and McCain in Oklahoma too. Second look at Huckabee? We will see. There is still a long night ahead of us. Where is Mitt? Will he pick up at the tail end of it all? Will someone be bowing out tomorrow? Or could this just turn into a brokered convention?

Live updates as they come in at CNN

I think FOX called Alabama too soon. It looks like McCain is winning there. Here is the tally at Drudge as of 9:30 p.m.

AL: OBAMA
AR: CLINTON
DE: OBAMA
GA: OBAMA
IL: OBAMA
MA: CLINTON
NY: CLINTON
NJ: CLINTON
OK: CLINTON
TN: CLINTON

AR: HUCKABEE
CT: MCCAIN
DE: MCCAIN
IL: MCCAIN
MA: ROMNEY
NJ: MCCAIN
NY: MCCAIN
WV: HUCKABEE

Update: Could McCain lose his own state?

Update: Fox News calls Delaware to McCain.

The called states at this hour:

Republicans:

McCain: NJ, IL, DE, CT

Romney: MA

Huckabee: WV, AR, AL

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton: AR, OK, TN

Barack Obama: IL, GA

Update: FOX calls Alabama for Huckabee

On the Dem side, Drudge lists up the Obamamania exit polls and the ones that have been called. Keep in mind, the exit polls are fluid and do not actual represent votes.

AR: CLINTON
GA: OBAMA
IL: OBAMA
OK: CLINTON
TN: CLINTON

AR: HUCKABEE
CT: MCCAIN
IL: MCCAIN
MA: ROMNEY
NJ: MCCAIN

WARNING: EXIT NUMBERS EARLY AND DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL VOTES:

OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37… Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45… Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45… Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42… Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48… Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46… New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47…

CLINTON: California: Clinton 50, Obama 47… New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43… Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41…

More exit polls at the campaign corner.

Another open thread at Hot Air:

Romney’s running a fairly distant third in Georgia right now, 37-33-25 with Huck in the lead. If Huck holds on, this makes three wins for him already: Georgia, West Virginia, and Alabama, which McCain was supposed to win.

Gribbit thinks this will end up being a brokered convention.

Hillary Wins Massachusetts

Hillary just took the win in Massachusetts. This is a HUGE slap in the face to the Kennedy clan! Mass. Senator Teddy Kennedy threw it all in for Obama and his own state rejected his suggestion.

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