Deciphering the Polls

Posted on December 30, 2007

Polls, polls, polls. Lots of em today, and they are all over the place. Let’s take a look.

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby: Puts Clinton at a 4% lead over Obama, and Edwards 3% under Obama. Everyone else on the Democrat side poll in under 5% total.

McCain has the momentum on the Republican side of the poll rising up to 11% for the third place slot. After factoring in the percentage of error, Thompson holds a practical dead heat for his third place slot with 8%. Huckabee tops the poll with an insignificant 1% lead over Romney. However the trend this results from is bad news for Huckabee as his popularity slips.

McClatchy/Mason-Dixon: This poll draws us a completely different picture.

In this poll, John Edwards takes the first place prize instead of third for the Democrats. However, his lead is 1% over Clinton and 2% over Obama. Bill Richardson comes in with 12% and Joe Biden with 8%. Everyone else polls in lower than 2%.

For the Republicans, Romney takes a wide lead over Huckabee by 4% points with 27%. Fred Thompson takes over the third place slot with a slim lead over McCain (14% over 13%).

So what are we to make of these roller coaster polls? Look at them closely because they both show the exact same trend data. Iowa still has not made up its mind. Captain Ed summarizes it nicely, it’s still a dead heat. However there are three other trends showing in both polls.

1. Support for Huckabee is dropping
2. Support for Thompson is rising
3. Support for McCain is rising

Thompson’s last ditch efforts in combination of Huckabee’s screw ups are turning out to be good for him. However, sudden support for McCain is keeping the race for third tight. A lot of the outcome will depend on turn out.

Race for 2008 has some interesting analysis too.

There is still around 8 to 10% of likely voters that are undecided, so one can see how a shift of focus in the last few days makes sense. Overall it is a tight three person race for the top spot by Democrats, and a tight two man race for first place for the Republicans. The third place slot is a tight race between McCain and Thompson.

Want more confusion and roller coasters? Take a look at Rasmussen’s breaking National poll!

For the first time all year, Arizona Senator John McCain finds himself on top with support from 17% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. In the muddled GOP race, McCain becomes the third person to top the poll this month and the fourth since October. But his lead is statistically insignificant–Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are just a point behind at 16% and Rudy Giuliani is two points back at 15%. Slightly off the pace, but still within five points of McCain, is Fred Thompson at 12%. Ron Paul retains his base support at 7%.

I can relieve you of some confusion on the National poll. Don’t pay much attention to it, everything will shift after the Iowa results. It’s way too early to look at National polls which will continue to be roller coasters for a long while.

» Filed Under News, Politics As Usual, Polls