Brass Tacks For Election 2006, You Read It Here First

Posted on October 31, 2006

Left leaning “CQ Weekly” has released its final special report before the 2006 midterm elections, complete with analysis of every competitive race in the country by the staff of CQPolitics.com. They have a very interesting chart and background detail that is worth looking at.

They currently have the House at 210 Democrat, 207 Republican and 18 tossup. As a “Floridian Immigrant” for the last 15 years (having fled Michigan), a business that takes me all over the State, active in Florida Politics and having worked on the 2000 recount performing recount scenario statistics, I can comment on Florida races. I disagree completely that FL-22 with a 13 term Republican is a “tossup” and that FL-16 with the very popular State House incumbent is “lean Democrat.”

Adjusting for those two seats, and accepting all the remaining CQ conclusions leaves the race at 209 Democrat, 208 Republican and 17 tossup. OK, what exactly is “tossup:”

tossup n. Informal. An even chance or choice: It is a tossup whether we will win or lose. The flipping of a coin to decide an issue.

The truth is that these 17 “tossups” are not exactly “tossups.” Because these are 100% Republican “held” seats there are tremendous structural barriers that must first be overcome for a Democrat to take the seat. This is discussed in “Why Some Top Republicans Think They May Still Have the Last Laugh.” The same also applies in reverse.

As a kid, do you remember those novelty coins that you could buy that always came up heads? That is somewhat like we have here. I am not saying that these 17 races will always be “Republican Up” but I am saying that they will be “Republican Up” greater than 50%.

With 60% of the so called “toss ups” going Republican, we will control the House in one week.

The safest bet in 2006 is Red.

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One Response to “Brass Tacks For Election 2006, You Read It Here First”

kerwin_brown on November 1st, 2006 2:31 am

I do not like the idea than money and not principles seems to be the deciding factor, as it means the rich rule America instead of the people.