Twenty Marginal Loss Republican Seats Represents Coin Toss Probability, Nothing More

Posted on October 23, 2006

Over at Election Projection, there are 20 House seats that are identified as “Weak Dem Gain.” These are the seats that are in play.

Because they are “weak gains” the probability of it switching is only slightly better than 50%. We are dealing with “coin toss probability.”

It is possible that the Republicans will retain all 20. It is also possible that the Democrats will gain all 20. The probability of a Republican or Democrat “sweep” of the 20 is about equal.
(It is possible to flip a coin 20 times and get heads 20 times or tails 20 times. The probability of getting heads 20 times in a row or tails 20 times in a row is equal.)

It is possible that the Republicans will retain 19. It is also possible that the Democrats will gain 19. The probability of a Republican or Democrat retention/gain of 19 is about equal.
(It is possible to flip a coin 20 times and get heads 19 times and tails 1 time and vice versa. The probability for either scenario equal one another.)

It is possible that the Republicans will retain 18. It is also possible that the Democrats will gain 18. The probability of a Republican or Democrat retention/gain of 18 is about equal.
(It is possible to flip a coin 20 times and get heads 18 times and tails 2 time and vice versa. The probability for either scenario equal one another.)

It is possible that the Republicans will retain 10. It is also possible that the Democrats will gain 10. The probability of a Republican or Democrat retention/gain of 10 is the most likely probability scenario. (It is possible to flip a coin 20 times and get heads 10 times and tails 10 times, which is the most likely result with 20 tosses.)

Probability tells me that the most likely scenario is that 10/11 seats will flip.

Disclosure: During the 2000 recount, I was one of several assisting the Florida Republican Party by performing recount data analysis and probability calculations. All during the recount, I had complete confidence that Bush would maintain his small edge. Further, I encouraged the campaign to not “fear” large county wide or state wide recounts.

For my fellow brothers in uniform that are currently serving or have left the service, this is no different than Field Artillery support. There is nothing to fear. You run the numbers, the round goes over your position and impcats the target exactly where you want it. I have never feared “danger close.”

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