How Republicans Will Win Lieberman’s Senatorial Seat

Posted on August 9, 2006

Conservatives are asking the obvious question — how well will Lieberman do in the general election? — but are missing the more important one — How well will Conservatives do now?
Yesterday Joe Lieberman lost an important battle, but not the war. The media will breathlessly portray Ned Lamont’s primary win as a referendum on Bush’s War in Iraq and declare that momentum is shifting toward the Democrats (momentum always does). But Lieberman’s loss didn’t tell us anything new. Since liberal Democrats generally vote in Democratic primaries, we learned yesterday that liberals don’t agree with the war. Only the drive-by media could call that news. Lieberman may no longer appeal to the kook fringe of the Democratic party, but he will do very well in the general election — at least well enough for a Republican to win.

Ned Lamont will have to face Joe Lieberman (now Independent) again in the general election. While Lamont will retain liberal Democratic voters, it is unlikely that he will build a strong coalition with moderates and conservatives. Lieberman, who will appeal to moderates, will take those voters away from Lamont — critical voters needed to defeat a Republican candidate.

Vietnam war hero John Kerry won Connecticut in 2004 with 54% of the vote. Assuming that Lamont would also win with 54%, Lieberman would have to take 10% away from Lamont for a Republican candidate to win with 46% of voters. With Lieberman and Lamont getting center stage and cannibalizing each other, even Mickey Mouse would be able to squeak out a victory in November:

Lamont (D): 44%
Lieberman (I): 10%
Mickey Mouse (R): 46%

Under normal circumstances, a candidate would step aside to help his or her party avoid such cannibalization. But these are not normal times. It’s unlikely that Lieberman would (or should) make that kind of sacrifice for the party that has rejected him.

If this sounds familiar, Bill Clinton won the presidency twice using this strategy. Ross Perot always took enough votes away from Bush 41. Republicans have a unique opportunity to return the favor in Connecticut. Let the media portray yesterday’s primary as a victory for Democrats, but November’s general election will be the Republicans’ to lose.

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4 Responses to “How Republicans Will Win Lieberman’s Senatorial Seat”

Glib Fortuna on August 9th, 2006 1:15 pm

Sorry Jim, this is wishful thinking.

GOP Senate candidate Alan Schlesinger only pulls 9-13% in the most recent polls.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12702

There is no indication that he will muster 30 points or more as the majority-Independent state will likely line up behind either Lamont or Lieberman, as this is the marquee match-up with most CT RINOs (most Nutmeggers that ID with the GOP) peeling off to support Lieberman. Get this: CT Republicans give Lieberman higher approval marks than either Dems. or Independents!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=5b2ae37d-ddb3-43ce-9ef4-f463f260dbe9&#38;x=751,1

The GOP won’t in CT. However, if the RNC and the national House and Senate campaign arms aren’t completely incompetent (not so sure), they will capitalize on this purge of a VERY liberal Democrat as proof positive that if Democrats gain power, we’re in great danger.
Jim on August 9th, 2006 1:21 pm

Great info, Glib. I’ve heard that the CT GOP is a weak organization. Like I said, this is the Republicans’ to lose.
dick on August 9th, 2006 1:35 pm

Time to pull Schlesinger. Let’s run Mickey Mouse instead.
kerwin_brown on August 10th, 2006 3:24 am

I am afraid Alan Schlesinger is not Mickey Mouse. According to polls in a three way race he will get 9% and Lieberman will win. If the Republicans want to win they would have to put forth another candidate that is culturally conservative while being economically liberal. It would be a good idea if she/he was also against the guest worker program advocated by Bush.