Leaked Obama Internal Poll: Is Pennsylvania In Play?
Posted on October 21, 2008
All the public polls say its out of range, but the Maverick is playing the bluff and putting all chips on the table. Plus, certain Democrats are acting quite nervous about Obama’s absense in the state. Perhaps it is the leaked Obama internal poll showing Obama up only by 2?
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton—return to campaign in Pennsylvania, Rendell told CNN’s Gloria Borger.
Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia. Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state
Of course, if this rumor is true it is because, as Murtha will tell, Pennsylvanians are “racist rednecks”. After all, if he were white he would be up by 15 or 20!
» Filed Under 1st Amendment, News, Politics As Usual, Polls, Propaganda, State Polls, Stupidity
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9 Responses to “Leaked Obama Internal Poll: Is Pennsylvania In Play?”
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Sorry, Obama can’t come to PA right now. He’s busy in Hawaii trying to squelch his fake birth certificate.
My friends, McCain is within 2% points of overtaking Obama.
These 10% point leads can be easily explained.
Say I want a certain result for Obama. What I
then do as a pollster is pick a demographic
area where democrats out vote republicans…say I call 1000 democrats and call only 500 republicans. Bingo, I get a higher percentage vote for Obama and a small one for MCCain.
The other reason pollsters give Obama a higher percentage point is to disallusion republicans to believe that either you cast your vote for Obama or you forget about voting for McCain because according to these
sly and crooked pollsters, McCain is losing.
That is why they rarely produce the real percentage points because if they do, people would likely throw their support for McCain,
and they don’t want that to happen.
The truth of the Obama Hot Air Balloon is coming out.
@Joyce
Heartless much? Go hug your grandmother for me.. She misses you.
@Jim
WTH? Your understanding of basic statistics definitely puts you in with the republican crowd. If they call 500 republicans and 1000 democrats, they can adjust for that. Go back to school you redneck.
We don’t know if it’s 2 points or 10 points. We don’t know what’s going to happen. I believe Obama will win Pennsylvania and McCain is wasting time there. He needs his red states and he is flailing in those. Doesn’t bother me though.
Of course these skyrocketing polls are trash. Like Jim here said, if you read the entire polling reports from ABC, CBS,& blah blah blah they poll an OVERWHELMING number of democrats vs. republicans. This we know. But, does anyone else here think this poll may have been leaked PURPOSEFULLY by Obama because of his reported huge lead just to scare some of his supporters and ensure many more people become more aggressive in voting and campaigning for him in Penn.? I hope not. Just curious.
Oh, and for the post from WTH…Yeah, what the hell!! What are you talking about! Adjust for what? Statistics analysis does not work that way. If you ever taken a basic stats class, you can’t magically adjust for it. If you can, please tell us. Because I would LOVE to see that equation.
Example:
Purely fictional..
90% of democrats polled vote for Obama
90% of republicans polled vote for McCain
50% of independents polled vote for Each
36% of Americans are Democrats
30% of Americans are Republicans
34% of Americans are Indepenent.
Obama Vote = .36 * .9 + .30 * .1 + .34 * .5
= 52.4% Obama
McCain Vote= .36 * .1 + .30 * .9 + .34 * .5
= 47.6% McCain Vote
Obviously this is a very rough formula.. but you might notice it is based on percentages not actual values. The specific number of respondents of each group only pertains to the accuracy of the poll (the +- variance)
Regardless of the total number of voters polled.. these percentages can be scaled to the general population of the state.. this is the basic principle of polling in the first place. Read a book once in a while..
The mathematical exercise you see here in these comments doesn’t deal with the fact that no one really knows the party weighting factors. They are presupposed to have a 6 point lead for the democrats ased on voter registration or in rasmussen’s case a separate poll designed to figure out how many dems vs. reps there are. Both methods are crap. Voter registration is skewed this year because of the weird primary season. I know a number of republicans and independents who registered democrat to vote in the primary between Obummer and CLintonpart2. These people didn’t want either of them to win. They just wanted to see the fighting go on longer.
As far as rasmussen’s method. I wouldn’t take one of his robocalls to participate in his poll if you paid me.