Obama Plummets Among Independents, Lead Down to Three Points
Posted on October 19, 2008
Maybe things are not as inevitable as the media paint the headlines? McCain gains in the latest Zogby poll into the 3 point margin of error. Gallup is showing the same spread with likely voters. McCain has gained in Ohio as well, making it a tied game there. You can paint the headlines however you lean. For example, Gallup headlines their poll Obama Retains Significant Lead, touting a ten point spread among registered voters. However, as everyone knows, its likely voters we should be looking at and Gallup only shows a 3 point spread there. The media keep telling us that the undecideds are the all important independent voters. We could look at specifics in the latest Zogby poll and create a headline like Jammie Wearing Fool did, and we stole, Obama Plummets Among Independents! We like this headline much better.
Pollster John Zogby said the numbers were good news for McCain, and probably reflected a bump following his appearance in the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday.
“For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent. There is no question something has happened,” Zogby said.
He said the Arizona senator appeared to have solidified his support with the Republican base — where 9 out of 10 voters now back him — and was also gaining ground among the independents who may play a decisive role in the November 4 election.
Obama’s lead among independent voters dropped to 8 points on Sunday from 16 points a day earlier.
‘RED FLAGS’
“If that trend continues, it is something that has got to raise red flags for Obama,” Zogby said. “It suggests to me that his outward look of confidence may be as much strategy as it is real.”
We can paint the headlines however we like, but the truth is that the race is going to be super close just like other years. Both candidates know this from their internal polls. Don’t listen to the propaganda about a landslide.
You can count on Biden to reveal what they are seeing internally:
“Mark my words, you’re going to see these polls drop this week,” Biden forecasted. “We got a bump. We’re going to be in good shape. You’re going to see them drop. There’s nothing automatic about this at all.”
Lowering expectations and blaming it on racism all at once, that takes talent.
I’ll add this much as well. I thought McCain was on fire in the last debate. The media, including FOX, gave the win to Obama. I completely disagreed, and I think we may be seeing a bump for McCain from his actual win of the debate.
Also read AJ Strata’s excellent analysis of the polls.…and DJ Drummond’s anaylsis.
» Filed Under 1st Amendment, Elections, Liberal Media/Bias, News, Politics As Usual, Polls, State Polls
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3 Responses to “Obama Plummets Among Independents, Lead Down to Three Points”
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I am STILL waiting to find out why OBAMA has not produced a VALID birth certificate………notthe fake one we see……and why someone is not raising
holy jihad over this ?????
Pretty reasonably argued.
I think the pundits and media wanted to give the last debate to McCain, but the polls and MediaCurve dials didn’t let them. Everyone agreed it was his best.
I seriously think the McCain of Letterman the other day could have beaten Obama hands down, the McCain you may not agree with, but that you like. His campaign, and his own attitude and body language have made him into the bitter old man, the curmudgeon that people don’t want to be around, and don’t want to entrust their children to.
The campaign’s focus on non-issues has been astounding, and McCain’s demeanor, his resentment, anger, and irascibility have been self-defeating. The right feels anger at the way Palin has been treated and the way the credit crisis has been handled, but I don’t see the rest of America wanting to see that as the default attitude of their president. Reagan was firm, but not angry. Bush in 2000 was firm, but not angry. Kerry was wooden, but when he emoted, it was anger, which the left felt, but it didn’t capture anyone else. Palin isn’t angry. People that hate her don’t hate HER, they hate what she represents to them, which is the anger of social conservatives who want to deny women the right to an abortion (I’m not suggesting which is the correct position, but’s what they’re feeling), the right for queers to marry (again, not judging, just pointing out), the right of queers to have “civil unions” (which is the most supported position on polls), and of course the campaign is having her say stupid things about “real” America. However outraged her supporters are, she’s having a wonderful time, loves to be doing what she’s doing, and is winking, not rolling her eyes.
McCain has missed one opportunity after another against a guy who went up against the Clinton fundraising machine and beat it. The campaign hasn’t managed to focus on a message that reaches to everybody, or at least the middle class. Independents usually break to the right, so McCain’s “surge” among independents to continuing below Obama looks like another barometer of missed opportunities. Palin exudes confidence, even if the left think it is misplaced. McCain exudes irritability. It’s been a disaster.
Here’s my .02:
I suspect Obama is starting to wear out his welcome in people’s homes thanks to his 40 gazillion TV and radio ads. It’s now “All Obama, All of the Time.” I can’t speak for anyone else, but Obama now strikes me as a fast-talking and pushy salesman who’s trying waaaaaaay too hard to close a deal. I’ve met guys like Obama and when they start pulling that act, all the red flags go up–that’s when I get up and say, “Thanks, but I need to sleep on this. I’ll call you back later.”
We’ll see what happens on November 4th, but I suspect a lot of Americans are now muttering, “Why does Obama want to be President so much that he keeps getting in our faces every five minutes?” I suspect the “confidence” supposedly exuded by the Obama Campaign is actually masking titanic insecurity and borderline paranoia.