It’s Not Over Yet Folks

Posted on October 13, 2008

I know the recent polls are discouraging, but it ain’t over yet.

That’s not what lots of smart folks in the Obama campaign think. They believe Obama’s poll numbers are artificially high, McCain’s are artificially low, this race will come down to two or three points, and anything could happen.

As Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen in the Washington Post today remind us, “recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable…At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points.”

Don’t write the obituaries yet. The numbers WILL narrow. As Ragnar reminds us:

A mere TEN DAYS AGO, the polls were a DEAD HEAT in most of the swing states, and no one was calling for McCain to fire his entire staff and completely change his entire campaign strategy.

DEAD HEAT. TEN DAYS AGO.

There are still TWENTY-TWO DAYS left between now and election day. That’s an ETERNITY in presidential politics, and the numbers appear to be turning in McCain’s direction in key states.

It ain’t over yet.

Update: Here is McCain’s underdog, “yes, we can”, pep talk.

Oh, and it looks like there is more to come.

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