State Polls Today
Quick and dirty update on State polls. You can check out the full data at Electoral Vote. Some of the important highlights to a massive amount of new polls
- Va is back to slightly McCain
- Pa. still a dead heat
- New Mexico is back to Barry
- Mac takes over Colorado
- Barry is losing ground in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan
- Mac lost some ground in Florida, West Virginia, Louisiana, and NC (though NC is still solidly GOP)
- NY is back to Barry by 12
- The Welfare State of Washington DC is massively Barry
- Barry lost a bit in Idaho Iowa, though still solidly Barry (woops, brain and fingers did not co-operate)
A big concern, and not just symbolically, is Illinois, Barack’s home state, of course. The margin has been slowly creeping closer, and, with the latest poll, Barry only leads by 6. This is a state that Kerry won by 10, Gore won by 12, Clinton won by 17 in ‘96 and 15 in ‘92. Will Obama lose it? Probably not. But, if he pulls a Gore and loses his home state, very bad, since Illinois accounts for 21 electoral votes.
For the most part, I am ignoring most solidly blue or red states, especially if there is little change.
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Posted by William Teach on September 18, 2008 12:51 pm
» Filed Under Elections, News, Obama/Biden, Polls
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6 Responses to “State Polls Today”
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You mean, Iowa? Right? Idaho is definitely red for McCain.
Yup, fingers and brain did not co-operate.
“solidly blur”
O Rly
check out http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
it has more recent polling info and if you take the close call states and shift them to who is leading at this time, you’ll end up with Obama 273 McCain 265. The Wall Street mess is affecting McCain.
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Well, really, Susan, no matter what your wishes are, we are not a democracy. Our system was not set up for direct democracy at a federal level, and, to put it in reality, you are not voting for a candidate for President, you are voting for electors.