On The McCain Bump-50 States
Posted on September 9, 2008
Not to be the enthusiasm vampire (a saying we picked up in a sales management seminar-pretty much the only thing*), but, McCain may be leading in the Gallup/UselessA Today poll 54-44, and in other polls, but, as we go down the final stretch, remember that the polls are national polls, and have little bearing on the actual election results. What it comes down to is the electoral votes, as you all know, and I bet many of the Direct Democracy libs are abandoning their cherished DD in favor of the current models, based on State polling data going back anywhere from September 2 to late July. (all data via Electoral Vote)
Right now, Barry leads 301-224, with 13 electoral votes for Virginia up for grabs with a dead heat. Right now, McCain is losing in several States that Bush won (Bush-Kerry in parentheses)
- Nevada B47-M45 (B51-K48)
- New Mexico is a butt woopin’ at the moment B50-M41 (B50-K49) New Mexico has tended to go Dem, BTW
- Colorado B45-M43 (B52-K47)
- North Dakota B43-M40 (B63-K36, so, lots of work to do in ND)
- Indiana B55-M40. Real bad there (B50-K49)
- Ohio B47-M45 (B51-K49)
There are also a few states, such as Montana, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Indiana where it is a bit close for comfort in what should be easy states for McCain. And, with Virginia, where it is tied, and Republicans have killed Dems in 3 of the last 4 elections.
It is also a little close in Florida, M46-B45.
Interestingly, McCain is only 5 out in Pa, and 8 out in New York. The GOP has been crushed in NY in the last 4 elections. 9 out in NJ. 7 in Oregon. 5 in Wisconsin and Michigan, but, doubt that will change anywhere to a win. NJ and NY, doubtful as well.
Unfortunately, the last data for Delaware was in February. Alaska is, as usual, solidly GOP. Go figure.
McCain needs to pick back up all those states Bush won, or substitute Pa or Oregon. And he needs Florida.
There is still some good time, and, we need to see what the Palin effect brings on, especially with some of the states that haven’t had polls since Palin made her speech, and over the past few weeks.
Another big factor will be the youth vote, which often fails to show up. Then we have the debates. Time will tell.
And yet another factor will be if Barry realizes that he is running against John McCain, not Sarah Palin.
Of course, if McCain loses, Republicans will be disappointed, but, will go on with their lives. If Obama loses, if you thought you saw bat-sh*t crazy over the past 4 years, you ain’t seen nothing yet!
Crossed at Pirate’s Cove
» Filed Under Elections, News, Obama/Biden, Polls, Sarah Palin
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The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com