The primary issue, whether the poll accurately reflects the the views of CA or not, is the LA Times’ unwillingness to tell the truth about the numbers the paper itself collected and the reporters’ fabrication of “facts.”

I agree, the poll is screwy.

BTW — the marriage amendment is not a “ban.” It protects marriage from ANY redefinition.

then it says it’s nearly tied when Arnold says he’s against amending the constitution….euhm, okay..if 54% wanted to amend the constitution that answer wouldn’t have been tied.

If you look at the details of the poll, it’s so weird….it says most people 65+ are opposed to amending the constitution, where as 18-34 years old are most likely to approve of the ban. I’m sorry, but that’s complete and utter garbage.

There is no “undecided” or “don’t know” vote on the ballot so the *margin* in favor of Yes , as per the opinion survey results, is 19% and not 4%.

When the marrige statute was approved by California voters last time, the *margin* was 63 to 37 — i.e. a point spread of 26.

Take these observations together and the story is not as it was widely reported to be. The marriage amendment is not on the ropes.

The Yes side appears to have received a boost from the Supreme Court decision that appeared just prior to this survey.

That boost may fade, I dunno, however, if past trends in all marriage amendment campaigns are the recent history by which we can forsee the very near future, then, look for a repeat victory for the Yes side — by a very strong margin.

But campaigns are held for a reason. Winners do not stay home — neither as defeatists based on pre-emptive media reports of failure, not as triumphalists who count their chickens before their eggs have hatched.