Naked Media Bias: LA Times and CA marriage poll
Posted on May 23, 2008
Many have reported on this ridiculous LA Times story (Times Poll: Californians narrowly reject gay marriage) about how Californians “just barely” support retaining the definition of marriage in the state (Truth: Marriage wins by 19%, 54-35), but I need to point something else out.
The “journalist” makes up the following “fact”:
ballot measures on controversial topics often lose support during the course of a campaign
Is that true? I recall that nearly every marriage amendment polled far below how the vote actually turned out. I was right.
Baptist Press: 54% in Calif. back marriage amend.
Although 54 percent is a slippage in support for traditional marriage since 2000 –- when a law banning “gay marriage” passed 61-39 percent -– marriage amendments typically do better at the ballot than they do in polling. For example, a Wisconsin amendment in 2006 polled anywhere from 48 to 51 percent in pre-election polls but passed 59-41 percent, and an Oregon amendment in 2004 polled around 50 percent but passed 56-44 percent.
I also looked at Arizona’s 2006 polling:
Proposition 107 will amend the Arizona constitution to ban same-sex marriages and would bar governmental entities such as cities, counties, school districts and universities from providing employee benefits to unmarried partners. Will you vote for or against this proposition?
For 30%
Against 56
Undecided 14
Even though Arizona is the only state of 28 that did not pass its marriage amendment, it still ended up with nearly 49%.
In Michigan on election night 2004, we have this from CNN:
The poll also found that the outcome of a proposed constitutional amendment that would ban gay and lesbian marriage is too close to be determined.
Among likely voters, 51 percent said they would vote against such a ban, while just 45 percent said they would support it. Among registered voters, 51 percent were opposed and 44 percent said they would support it, the poll found.
Michigan’s marriage protection amendment passed…with 59%!!!
I think I’m starting to understand what Colbert means by “truthiness.”
If we go with the polling trend, the CA marriage amendment should get somewhere around 65% of the vote. Giddy up!
» Filed Under Activist Judges, Elections, Homosexual Agenda, Liberal Media/Bias, News, Polls, Psychology, Revisionism, Stupidity
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4 Responses to “Naked Media Bias: LA Times and CA marriage poll”
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Opinion surveys have “predicted” margins that under-estimate the actual Yes votes on marriage measures by, on average, 10%-plus.
There is no “undecided” or “don’t know” vote on the ballot so the *margin* in favor of Yes , as per the opinion survey results, is 19% and not 4%.
When the marrige statute was approved by California voters last time, the *margin* was 63 to 37 — i.e. a point spread of 26.
Take these observations together and the story is not as it was widely reported to be. The marriage amendment is not on the ropes.
The Yes side appears to have received a boost from the Supreme Court decision that appeared just prior to this survey.
That boost may fade, I dunno, however, if past trends in all marriage amendment campaigns are the recent history by which we can forsee the very near future, then, look for a repeat victory for the Yes side — by a very strong margin.
But campaigns are held for a reason. Winners do not stay home — neither as defeatists based on pre-emptive media reports of failure, not as triumphalists who count their chickens before their eggs have hatched.
Can you realy trust polls taken by the L.A. SLIMES and any of the other left-wing news rags
I think the poll is very weird. First off it says 41% support same-sex marriage, yet only 35% are opposed to amending the constitution — euhm okay….
then it says it’s nearly tied when Arnold says he’s against amending the constitution….euhm, okay..if 54% wanted to amend the constitution that answer wouldn’t have been tied.
If you look at the details of the poll, it’s so weird….it says most people 65+ are opposed to amending the constitution, where as 18-34 years old are most likely to approve of the ban. I’m sorry, but that’s complete and utter garbage.
Kevin
The primary issue, whether the poll accurately reflects the the views of CA or not, is the LA Times’ unwillingness to tell the truth about the numbers the paper itself collected and the reporters’ fabrication of “facts.”
I agree, the poll is screwy.
BTW — the marriage amendment is not a “ban.” It protects marriage from ANY redefinition.