Presidential Race Predictions 2008
Posted on January 27, 2008
I don’t usually like to make predictions like this because, historically this far out, it’s hard to get it right as so many things can change in the many months ahead. But I feel things are solidifying already. So, here it is. My prediction on who will be facing whom for the 2008 election for president.
GOP
Romney will win the nomination for the GOP. He has the delegates and that will just grow as Republicans realize that it is either Romney or McCain. Granted, both are horrible choices… but McCain is by far the worst or the two. As to who Romney will pick for VP, rumors are abound that he will go for Fred Thompson. This is an outside possibility as long as Thompson doesn’t get his heart set on running for Governor of Tennessee and as long as he feels VP is good enough for him. It is also a good choice for Romney because principled conservatives hate the man. Chosing Thompson would add badly needed credibility to the ticket. If Thompson does refuse or does not become the VP choice, I cannot guess who it will be otherwise.
Dem
Hillary will win for the Democrat Party and she will pick gov. Richardson for VP. She also will have more delegates in the long run. As to picking Richardson, after making so many blacks mad at her (and Bill) during this race because of her treatment of Obama, she will have to shore up her Hispanic constituents. They are a bigger voting block anyway. She will ignore her black voters and pander to the Hispanic ones.
The interesting thing here is that both candidates, Romney and Hillary Clinton, have large portions of their voters who don’t like them at all. Many conservatives will not be able to vote for the left of center Romney. His past support of abortion and his man, many, many flip-flops will keep principled voters away from him. And, Hillary has just alienated her black voters and that will probably continue now that Obama won South Carolina by such a large margin. I feel many blacks will not be enthusiastic for her once she wins the nomination and support will slip. But how far?
So, the question becomes, NOT which candidate has excited more people than the other to win election, but which one has peeved off the most! Has Clinton lost enough black votes to affect her chances, or has Romney lost enough conservatives to lose his bid against Hillary?
Other GOP VP choices
I think if Condi Rice ran with him it might help his ticket. But, I can say right here that Rice will refuse. There has been a large effort in the past to draft her and she refused to have anything at all to do with the various efforts. Not even any cagey reaction to the idea on her part. It was a firm, flat out no. So, I’d rule Rice out. Once W rides home she will ride home, too.
There are at least tow other real good candidates. Mike Pence Congressman of Indiana has been a stalwart conservative in the House. However, he has had his eye of leadership in the House. I sort of doubt he’d give that all up to become Vice President. As to Sarah Palin (Gov. of Alaska) that would be a great choice. She has done an amazing job and her resume is fantastic. But, I am not sure where her interest lies in leaving Alaska. I have never seen her try to step up higher than Alaska on the national scene. So, I seem to feel she is not very interested in stepping higher than gov of Alaska.
On the other hand, she would be a good choice if she were convinced to do it. I for one would support her.
But, one thing about Palin. She would be an obscure choice for most people. Few know her or her record. (It is a really, really good record, too). It would take some time for the greater electorate to get to know her and that is time and campaign money that Romney might not have to waste as he begins his fight against Hillary. Hillary will have more money than Romney to fund the campaign, so spending money on Romney’s VP candidate isn’t a optimal idea.
Next we have Haley Barbour, Gov of Mississippi who is a really good choice and one who would bring some conservative bonafides. He did a fantastic job during Katrina, so he’d bring that favorable opinion with him on a sore subject for the GOP.
Last we have former Lt. Gov of Maryland, Michael Steele. Steele is a pretty good choice, too. He’d bring not a few black votes toward the GOP, for sure. But he would not improve the conservative aspect of a ticket with Romney.
So, there you have it. My predictions. And I hope I am not speaking too soon.
Trackback URL
Comments
5 Responses to “Presidential Race Predictions 2008”
-
Affiliations
The Giants
-
Advertise
Donate
Our Store
Click the design to visit our store and help Stop the ACLU!
Stop the ACLU blogburst
-
More blogs about the ACLU
Syndicate Me
As a 22 year-old African-American I cannot wait until my Caucasian & Latino friends get to vote on Feb. 5th. It’s no secret that people like to support people who look like them but this is ridiculous. This man has no experience–would you let a 3rd-year med student do open-heart surgery on you…NO. This means political war and I have distanced myself from some of my family who blindly support Obama because he is black. My city (Memphis) does the same thing—I guess some people love mayors that do nothing as a city declines, but my Mom & Dad got a clue and moved to the county, outside of city limits. I am currently in grad school and I want all you Obama supporters to email me at bhubbar@yahoo.com after Feb. 5 so I can gloat.
I agree with your predictions WTH.
But of course, I don’t agree with your opinion that “principled conservatives” hate Romney. You may be a principled conservative who happens to hate Romney. Being a principled conservative myself and with the polls showing that this is the very voting bloc that has given Romney his current momentum, his victories and a bulk of his support in every primary/caucus, it’s pretty hard to sustain such an argument. I’m sure you don’t mean that support for Mitt automatically makes one “unprincipled.”
As far as VP choices go, there are some others who deserve consideration, most notably Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina. This guy is THE model of conservatism and is absolutely incorruptible. He was class of ‘94 in Congress, bunked in his office, kept his term-limits promise and left in 2000, voted against pork that would have benefited his own district, vetoed a bunch of budget items that came from the GOP-controlled legislature in SC…to name a few things.
I wish Gov. Bobby Jindal had beaten Mary Landrieu for the Senate seat back in ‘02. He was just inaugurated in Louisiana, so he is staying put in Baton Rouge for now (even though he is actually old enough to be president finally). But I think he is a strong guy in either 2012 if the GOP loses or 2016 if the GOP can win this year.
Tim Pawlenty would be a wise choice as well.
I wouldn’t even rule out Huckabee, though that would be a disaster.
I think your prediction of Governor Richardson as the running mate of Hillary Clinton may be correct. Not only does it help her with the Latino vote, but during the earlier Democrat debates it appeared that Richardson was aggressively campaigning to be Hillary’s VP running mate.
Whoever got the balls to make a prediction at all earns some respect per se. That said I hope it is understood that I don’t mean harm. However, when it comes to the Republicans my opinion is a different than yours, Mr. Warner Todd Huston – and it can be read since the 15th January in parts so far on my web blog.
Sometimes I can’t await already to know how it all worked out. Way to go, I guess… best of luck!
Rate my prediction, before its too late – short poll there, takes a sec to get judged by history: http://preeedict.blogspot.com/
Have a nice one!