Late Breaking Surge For Fred Thompson?
Posted on January 2, 2008
Peter Robinson at the Corner seems to think there is a late surge for Fred according to the latest Zogby poll. I don’t know what stage of denial Allahpundit would put me in, but I’d like to think so too. Thompson has a reputation for late wins. However, Tennessee isn’t Iowa. Furthermore, if conservatives in Iowa take what Rush Limbaugh has to say with the least bit of seriousness Huckabee will likely see a late dip in support. A lot of what happens in Iowa depends on the motivation of supporters to show up. A strong third place finish is very possible for Fred.
The Thompson campaign may be shaping up as something like the precise reverse of the Clinton campaign. Presenting herself as the candidate of inevitability, Hillary dare not slip in the polls for fear of suffering a rapid and irretrievable collapse. Fred is by contrast the candidate who just can’t get elected—solid, likeable, and best on the issues—but, well, a man for whom it just isn’t going to happen. But as modest as it so far remains, his sudden rise in the polls—this “late-breaking surge,†to quote Zogby again—could persuade whole slews of Republicans that Fred could indeed win after all, leading to a definitive breakout.
From an unexpectedly strong third place in Iowa…to first place in South Carolina?
However, I don’t take much faith in any poll, especially Zogby. I don’t want to get my hopes too high. The rise for Thompson has went from 8 to 10 to 12%. He now ties it up for the third place slot with McCain.
However, this seems like a thin reed of hope. Zogby has a reputation more for outliers than for accuracy. Even if Zogby has this right, it still only puts Thompson third in a state where he has focused, and where Rudy Giuliani barely campaigned at all. A third place helps John McCain because he already has strength in New Hampshire and Michigan, while Fred only has any demonstrable strength in South Carolina.
I’m not ready to give up hope yet. This is the only candidate I can support with full heart. I’ll leave you with this video of him on FOX today.
» Filed Under 1st Amendment, News, Politics As Usual, Polls, Video
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5 Responses to “Late Breaking Surge For Fred Thompson?”
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I’m confused about your Rush comment. All I heard him say today is that Huckster is NOT conservative and there’s only one Reagan Republican in the race. How is that going to make Thompson’s support dip?
Fred is not going to drop out. he will do well in Iowa and then work his way to South Carolina. I have heard from many people in Iowa and Fred is definately in the front of their thoughts.
From a Canadian’s persepective I just cannot understand what is happening to Republicans. They whine and whine about not having a real conservative who is CONSISTENT on the issues, and when a man like Fred Thompson comes on the scene there seems to be very little support. What is going on in your great country! If we had a man with Fred’s record and ability we would be all over this guy like a fat kid on a M&M. There are some really tough issues that lie ahead for the USA, this is a defining moment. Conservatives need to stand up and vote for someone who will give real leadership to a country that the whole world (whether they admit it or not) looks to for leadership. This argument of “our candidate must be electable” just floors me! Since when did electability become a deciding factor in the conservative camp? Real conservatives vote for a leader with real conservative principles and a consistent record. America needs Fred Thompson right now, and if this time passes with Fred unelected, history will reveal the cataclysmic consequences that came when America failed to do her duty.
I’m voting for Fred in the Iowa caucus and I’m pretty sure he’ll be in the top 3. It wouldn’t surprise me if he won.
Mc Cain getting into the top 3 would be surprising though republicans up here don’t like him much and we’ve been ditching all these rinos in the primaries, many of them wouldn’t even run again like Hagel next door in Nebraska.
Most of the media is totally clueless and living in fantasy land.
Just wanted to come back and say I told you so.
Are the media also going to get South Carolina wrong? Fred Thompson is seeing an even larger surge there.