Political Bits and Pieces
Posted on December 26, 2007
Christmas was a success at our house. My eight year old said it was the best Christmas of his “entire” life…so I’ll just leave it at that. We went to find out what sex the baby is going to be today, but it wouldn’t turn in the right direction so we don’t have a definite answer on that. The doctor said she couldn’t see any definite male parts, but she wouldn’t bet her paycheck on any answer, so after 45 minutes of trying we scheduled for another ultra-sound on the 31st. So…now I guess I should get back to politics and the nomination process is probably the best place to start.
I talked briefly with my step-father on which candidate he liked. Sore to my ears he likes Huckabee. He seems to be charmed by his Baptist beliefs. I didn’t argue with him. I simply said that there were things about Huckabee that looked good but that I didn’t like his record on taxes. I told him that I was personally rooting for Fred Thompson, but that we would just wait and see who got picked. One thing I know we agree on is that we don’t want to see Hillary at the White House. I think that will once again be a uniting factor in the future.
Dean Barnett makes some bold predictions.
Mike Huckabee has buried himself. Over the next week, the Republican party in Iowa and elsewhere will decide that Huckabee may be a swell fellow, but he’s not of presidential timbre. I predict this decision will be made en masse. Huckabee’s support will likely crater in Iowa.
But here’s the fun part–no one will see it coming. Because of the holidays, there will be scant polling between now and the caucuses, and what polling there is will be of dubious reliability. (Paging ARG!) If Huckabee is going to lose a point or so a day between the end of last week and January 3, we won’t know it until the results from the caucuses are in. If Huckabee declines to a distant second or perhaps even third place as I am now fearlessly predicting he will, it will catch the voting public by surprise. When they tuned this race out before the long Christmas weekend, the media told them Huckabee was a sure thing in Iowa.
Huckabee’s support will have to go somewhere. The logical recipients are Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. While Iowans may not love Romney, they do respect him. Unlike Huckabee, he has impressed them as being of presidential timbre. And Thompson, at last, is running well in Iowa. He’s surging.
A stunning second place finish will get Thompson a moment in the spotlight. If he uses it well, he could emerge as the anti-Romney and make things interesting with a win in South
Carolina. That goal will be more viable if McCain manages to tarnish the luster of Romney’s Iowa victory in New Hampshire. There may yet be life in the Thompson campaign.
He may be right on Thompson coming in from behind. The rumor mills are swirling that a major surprise will come out later today. Any guesses? Perhaps an NRA endorsement?
He may be half right in his predictions if we are to trust this poll showing Huckabee support dropping…however Thompson support dropping too. Who actually shows up is another factor too often uncalculated by the punditry.
Bob Krumm agrees on his prediction about Huckabee tanking.
Huckabee is this year’s Howard Dean. There is a reason that Iowa and New Hampshire host the two earliest quadrennial events . . . they have often demonstrated a keen ability to move past the national media hype and determine which candidates really are of presidential timbre.
Mike Huckabee is not. Late next week he will have his scream. And Iowa, as it did four years ago on the Democratic side, will once again perform well its mission of removing from the race a pretender.
Meanwhile the Club for Growth buy more ads to expose Huckafraud.
Some are already looking at New Hampshire and the factor of a Romney backlash.
THERE IS A reason Mitt Romney has not received a single newspaper endorsement in New Hampshire. It’s the same reason his poll numbers are dropping. He has not been able to convince the people of this state that he’s the conservative he says he is.
Like a lot of people in New Hampshire, we wanted to believe Romney. We gave him the benefit of the doubt. We listened very carefully to his expertly rehearsed sales pitch. But in the end he didn’t close the deal for us. Now, two weeks before the primary, the same is happening with voters.
Republicans and right-leaning independents in New Hampshire gave Romney a chance. His events have not been sparsely attended. Nor have they been scarce. He’s made more campaign stops here this year than any other Republican, even John McCain.
And after a year of comparing Romney to McCain, of sizing up the two in person and in the media, Granite Staters are turning back to McCain. The former Navy pilot, once written off by the national media establishment, is now in a statistical dead heat with Romney here.
McCain has also been showing some comeback momentum, and it has been being reflected in some recent polls. This has Michelle Malkin asking the question of whether folks would actually pull the lever and vote for pro-amnesty McCain. So far it looks like most people would hold there nose and do so.
Thomas Sowell speaks about the unsatisfying choices:
None of the candidates looks truly inspiring at this point. I wouldn’t buy a used car from most of them, nor a brand new car from some of them…
… John McCain seems to be having a little resurgence but it is hard to believe that Republicans are so desperate as to support a man who joined with far left Democrat Russ Feingold to restrict free speech in the name of “campaign finance reform†and with Ted Kennedy to sponsor a bill giving amnesty to illegal immigrants.
…This nation has come back from unpromising times before. Let’s hope that we have not already used up all our luck.
Backlash is happening for Huckabee and Romney. Will McCain or Thompson grasp the opportunity to claim the mantle of the comeback kid? Stay tuned.
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First I want to say, I hope you and the family had a beautiful Christmas, and I am sure the new edtion will be joyous for you and the mrs.
Onto politics now..lol
John McStain’s support is about as manufactured as a barbie doll. I don’t trust “polls” period. So seeing him “surge” is the biggest joke to me. It’s not there. He’s the media’s man.
Romney is another one. One thing you have to remember is he was one of the first to declare he was running for Pres. and set up shop in IA. and NH, as if they were 3rd, and 4th homes to him. So yeah, in the first months of the campaign season he was viewed as the front runner. But now that people are paying attention, they are seeing nothing but a New England Liberal.
For Huckabee, I don’t see it. I have NO idea where his support is coming from. Being that I don’t hang around to many evangelicals ( not that I wouldn’t, it’s there bias towards Catholics that scares me). So I’m assuming it’s that side of the isle. IE..mega-churches, and people who are sheep when they here someone talking like “them”. Bill Clinton anyone?
Thompson needs a HUGE showing in IA, as in placing 4th or better to prove he can hang in there and NOT look lazy. And yes he does look Lazy. AND he needs to show he can raise the money to hang in there thru super-duper-quadruper-or whatever the hell they are calling it Tuesday. I would support Fred, if he hadn’t lobbyed for a Pro-Choice group or hadn’t signed up as a Foreign Agent to lobby, or if he wasn’t a C.F.R member.
That leaves us with Rudy and Paul. Rudy has some “econ-conservatives” on his side, as well as the W.O.T/We must support Israel no matter how bad they treat Catholics in the Holy Lands folks. But is there anything different from his postions than say Hillary or Obama? Not really.
And for Paul, who I do support as some here know. His biggest problem is his support from the Numb-nuts who believe 9/11 was an inside job, and some who can’t understand that he believe in the old Republican ways of dealing with the world, instead of the new ways. Which I can understand as well.
So, that’s my look on what’s happening. In other words, it’s one big Cluster F**k and it’s going to be one fun ride to watch.
Happy New Year my friends.
GodVoter.org Disdorses Romney: http://www.godvoter.org/news-romney-disdorsement.html