Gribbit is Back (for now) and Talking Thompson

Posted on December 20, 2007

Syndicated columnist and former CNN political commentator Robert Novak says that Fred Thompson is the “X Factor” in Iowa. And I agree. So much so that I think that a good showing in Iowa could carry over to a victory in South Carolina and in the majority of Super Tuesday Primary States. Is it certain? No. But it is possible. And since he is the most broadly conservative candidate on the campaign trail, it occurs to me that most economic, social, and national security Conservatives will endorse Fred when it comes down to separating the wheat from the chaff.

According to Novak:

Huckabee’s lead in the polls hardly assures a victory, and this race could change dramatically in the next three weeks.

1. The “X factor” in this race is former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.). Most Iowa Republicans did not even mention his name in discussing candidates they supported or opposed. He simply does not register in the minds of potential GOP caucus-goers, but when asked about him, voters have little negative to say.

2. Thompson has far more upside potential than any other Republican, and he is spending the entire final stretch in the Hawkeye State. Thompson has perhaps the most broadly conservative record of any candidate besides the three congressmen (see below). Many conservative Iowans currently settling for Romney, Giuliani or Huckabee (or planning a protest vote of sorts for one of the congressmen) could certainly jump on board with Thompson. If he defies his reputation as a lazy worker, he could make a spectacular surge here.

3. Huckabee’s high poll numbers and big leads do not guarantee a victory. He has nowhere near the campaign team, organization or money of runner-up Romney. As media scrutiny is finally arriving, he could be in trouble. Still, he is likable, and his openness about his Christianity plays very well among some blocs in the GOP.

4. Many Iowa Republicans like Huckabee because he comes across as genuine, especially in comparison to Romney. This is soft support that could bail to Thompson if he rises or to another candidate if Huckabee’s negatives continue to surface.

5. Immigration is a big issue for Iowa Republicans, and Huckabee’s support of state-subsidized education for illegal immigrants hurts him. His big-government record turns off some voters but is not a factor for some of his core supporters.

6. Huckabee’s dig at Mormons in Sunday’s New York Times magazine has turned off some Republican voters as dirty, bigoted or just politically dumb. This is the sort of thing that could bring him down.

7. Romney, like Giuliani, can afford to lose Iowa, but he still might win. His poll numbers have held steady amid Huckabee’s rise, and a late Romney collapse seems unlikely. Iowa Republicans who back him generally see him as the most electable conservative (in contrast to Giuliani). His healthcare mandate in Massachusetts turns off some conservatives but appeals to some older Republicans who see it as a legislative triumph in a Democratic environment. Romney’s success in business and the Olympics also appeals to potential caucus-goers.

8. Many Iowa Republicans who like Romney, however, consider him a general election liability, either because of his Mormonism or because of his record of flip-flopping. Interestingly, the flip-flops on abortion and other issues don’t directly turn off many GOP voters.

9. Giuliani has some appeal in Iowa, though not much. His personal life — his three marriages, publicly funded trysts — combined with his New York brashness hurt him here in the Heartland. His support for legalized abortion is definitely a net drag, although Iowa Republicans are hardly uniformly pro-life.

10. Giuliani’s main virtue in the eyes of Iowans is his perceived electability. Some see him as the best chance to “beat Hillary.” His particularly hawkish tone does not appeal too much here, as most Republicans do not put foreign policy at the top of their priorities.

11. The three congressmen running for President are broadly understood to be the most conservative, but not electable candidates. Representative Duncan Hunter (Calif.) has the respect of many Republican voters in a state where his brand of protectionism has some cachet. Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.) appeals to Iowa voters’ deep apprehension about illegal immigration.

12. Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) continues to amaze on many levels, and he had finally started to register on the polls. In last Tuesday’s Midwestern ice storm, almost every Iowa event was cancelled. The exception was a Paul rally, which drew hundreds. His crowds are regularly huge and enthusiastic. He chalked up another record fundraising day on Sunday’s anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, with more than $6 million in online donations in a single day.

13. This battle will hinge on Thompson’s performance down the stretch. If he excels, he could draw down Huckabee’s support significantly, and maybe Romney’s, too. If Thompson is as uninspired as he has been to date, Huckabee will probably win.

14. The most likely result at this point appears to be a slight Thompson surge at Huckabee’s expense, leaving Romney in first place and either Thompson or Huckabee in second.

Fred is THE man. Like Bush is 2000 and Kerry in ‘04, the front runner going into the Primary season normally does NOT gain the nomination. This fact is good news from Fred.

Presidential politics should offer a clear choice between the nominees. Giuliani and Romney do not offer a clear choice, Huck’s past tax and immigration policies leave a lot to be desired, McCain successfully alienated enough Conservatives that he’ll never in his wildest dreams be a true contender for the nomination.

With the departure of Tom Tancredo, it was thought that he might endorse Thompson. But he didn’t and some doomsdayers predicted the end of Thompson. To that notion I ask one question -

How can Tancredo’s 1% make or break ANY candidate?

Tancredo endorsed Mitt Romney of all people. The Congressman who has been so staunchly anti-illegal immigration endorses the former governor who had illegals mowing his lawn. That in itself is the most absurd bunch of BS that has come out of this election cycle.

What needs to happen is that Conservative bloggers and blog readers need to get the word out about the qualifications of each candidate. Who is the most broadly Conservative candidate? The answer is Fred Thompson. If you want a return of the Clintonian Infestation? Nominate any of the others. If you want a true Conservative in the White House, something that we haven’t had since 1989 by the way, nominate Fred Thompson.

» Filed Under Politics As Usual