Fred Thompson: The Comeback Kid?
Posted on December 13, 2007
I mentioned below the commentary from David Brody, but I’m finding several others coming to similar conclusions. I thought I would do a little roundup.
I think it’s pretty clear by now that Thompson is running his campaign the way he said he would. He’s not worried about the media, pundits or the traditional political game as we know it. He’s going to do things his way and talk about substantive issues. Look, he’s a serious guy and these are serious times. Thompson seems to be hitting his stride pretty well now. The question is, “Is it too late?†Who knows? The Huckabee craze could wear off with the increased scrutiny. Romney’s national numbers haven’t moved much and Giuliani has been trending downward. Something tells me we haven’t heard the last from Thompson.
All Fred needs to stay in the game is third place. As David points out, Rudy has been trending down, Romney’s numbers haven’t been moving, and the Huckabee surge should wear off soon. I’m actually expecting the Huckabee craze to start reversing due to all the recent negative attention. We very well could be surprised with the late game strategy working out in Fred’s favor. He is hitting mid-game stride right when everyone is starting to pay attention. He needs to turn yesterday’s successful performance into momentum, and it looks like he is trying to do just that.
Still, most post-debate spin focused squarely on Huckabee and Romney, who by avoiding missteps or attacks did little to change the game. But what if Thompson is, in fact, able to change the game? Much like John Edwards and John Kerry did in 2004, he could benefit from the increasingly negative tone of the race between the Iowa front-runners. Polling suggests Thompson might be the second choice for as many as 40 percent of Huckabee voters. Surveys also suggest that as many as six in 10 Iowa Republican caucus-goers say they could change their minds before they vote Jan. 3.
Aides say Thompson has thrown his campaign’s entire focus into Iowa, all but pulling out of New Hampshire and South Carolina in an effort to reinvent himself.
If he does so, watch for the GOP race to drag into February — far longer than the Democratic battle and with an outcome no one could possibly predict today.
Red State puts Thompson’s chances in Iowa in perspective with a trip back to 2004. Consensus is that Fred still has game time. If he wants it he better use it and make plenty of lay ups and a few slam dunks before the buzzer goes off.
David Schraub at the Moderate Voice seems to think Thompson has some kind of strategy as well.
Thompson begins his last-minute push. I would not be surprised if Thompson at least makes a strong move back to the top in the waning days of the campaign. After all, the Republican electorate does not seem happy with its choices, and Thompson’s original rationale as a candidate was precisely to be the savior for conservative voters who had nowhere else to go.
And last but not least…Rush Limbaugh tells a caller…don’t rule him out.
CALLER: Well, I really like Fred Thompson, but if he’s not going to be able to pull it off and get the nomination, then I need to –
RUSH: Well, now, wait. I got 20 seconds here but a lot of people are writing Fred Thompson off right now, but Fred Thompson’s strategy is South Carolina.
CALLER: Okay.
RUSH: Iowa and New Hampshire are not his focus. South Carolina is his focus. So factor that into your decision, because it’s too early to rule anybody out here. Don’t fall to conventional wisdom.
Check out this audio of Rush praising Fred Thompson’s performance at yesterday’s debate.
Bottom line: Strategy? Maybe. Will it work? Maybe.
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Great wrap up, Jay. The Rush audio clip is amazing. I wish he would break from his policy of non-endorsement and give Fred an extra shove to the top.
The key thing conservatives need to remember is that GWB won in 2000 and 2004 by convincing the apathetic evangelical voters to show up at the polls. Stop trying to win moderates or independents, those weren’t the ones who turned out the vote for GWB. Huckabee’s campaign is capitalizing on this strategy by touting his Christian values. Thompson will have to convince those same voters that his federalist positions are also representative of evangelicals.
You very well may be correct on the influence of the religious. However, this year the religious endorsements are quite divided, leaving the electorates on their own to decide. I would agree that it was very important in 2000, however I think the main factor getting Bush elected in 2004 was 9/11. I think it shuffled a lot of people’s priorities. The question is how strong the war on terrorism’s influence is vs. the religion factor. Personally, all the religious talk this election is making me a bit dizzy and sick. I mean, its not like they are running for pope.
The argument made by the Huck that “all men are created equal” is bogus. We may be created equal but there is no guarantee of equal outcome. This nation promises equal opportunity. That is equal opportunity to succeed AND an equal opportunity to fail. The issue at hand is do we reward failure? The Democratic solution to everything is to reward failure and punish success. This is a recipe for total failure for all of us. That is the battle we are waging. If the Huck wants Conservatives to vote for him, he’s going to need more than appealing to Evangelicals. I for one am NOT and evangelical. But I am a Christian. There is a difference.
Come back? Come back from what?? There hasn’t been a single vote yet!
“Personally, all the religious talk this election is making me a bit dizzy and sick. I mean, its not like they are running for pope.”
Couldn’t agree more, enough already.
Thompson needs more to keep the attention and news on him instead of having all the air sucked up by the romney vs. huckster crud the good debate performance and good performance on Kudlow is a start but it’ll take more then that I think. Keeping my fingers crossed.
No One Criticizes Thompson’s Policy or Message by Hank Butehorn 12/13
link
“Critics and skeptics have come out with various comments against Fred Thompson. People reference poll numbers, his campaign strategy or production, and question his drive or desire. There are comments about all things political, and that is the misplaced emphasis in this presidential campaign ….. concentration on “form†or “politics.â€
While those following the presidential race want to follow the “politics†of things, and watch the “horse race,†they overlook the most important factor that should be the basis for supporting a candidate, and that which will be the most important reason for a victory in the general election, the candidate’s “substance,†or “policy†and record.
The form over substance mentality is exactly what allows the deterioration of, and movement away from, conservatism. Conservatives believe a conservative message will defeat any Democrat; if they did not believe that they would not be looking for the most conservative candidate and the candidates would not be trying to claim that title. Therefore, substance should trump form; “policy†should win over “politics,†and the latter will ultimately follow the former.
But, by focusing on “politics,†and overlooking “policy,†people are looking past the shining star staring them in the face; they are so worried about losing to Democrats they are failing to see the one candidate that can prevent that fear from becoming a reality….”
Take a look at this devastating video about Mike Huckabee. He lacks the judgement necessary to be President:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFTdif_Lvsk (http://www.HuckabeeFacts.com)
Also, as Governor, Huckabee pardoned or commuted the sentences of more prisoners than all six states surrounding Arkansas during his first 8 years in office:
http://www.arkansasleader.com/frontstories/st_08_11_04/huckabee8.html