Comments on: NIE Report: Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Project Years Ago

By: Shimshon 9

Shimshon 9 — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 11:23:21 +0000

There must be more to the US backflip on Iran

The new US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, realistically ends any possibility of military action against the Islamist nation and also undermines the movement for tough sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program….
In effect Washington has…

By: Jeff Molby

Jeff Molby — Tue, 04 Dec 2007 14:37:16 +0000

I find it greatly amusing that the failure of intelligence that led to war in Iraq, is now a cautionary tale against not going to war with Iran.

Re-read #6 and #7; there’s nothing amusing about any of this.

Failure of intelligence should be a cautionary tale against any first-strike. Do you make a habit of hitting everyone that looks at you funny?!?

By: Xanthippas

Xanthippas — Tue, 04 Dec 2007 12:14:36 +0000

After all, the intelligence on Iraqâ€™s WMDs turned out to be so accurate.

I find it greatly amusing that the failure of intelligence that led to war in Iraq, is now a cautionary tale against not going to war with Iran.

By: Jeff Molby

Jeff Molby — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 22:59:55 +0000

All I’m asking for is some caution. Caution, like we didn’t see in the run-up to Iraq. Caution, like we haven’t heard from the hawk candidates.

Iraq is a glaringly example of our fallibility. All I want is a leader who isn’t going to traipse around the globe assuming we’re always right.

By: Jeff Molby

Jeff Molby — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 22:56:29 +0000

We are also talking about a potentially devestating and unnecessary war if we overestimate Iran’s abilities to hide that evidence.

By: Jay

Jay — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 22:51:21 +0000

We are talking about nukes. I think it is a logical falacy to underestimate Iran’s abilities to hide that evidence.

By: Jeff Molby

Jeff Molby — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 22:38:58 +0000

d’oh! Would the editing department mind closing that EM tag for me?

By: Jeff Molby

Jeff Molby — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 22:38:23 +0000

Suddenly, an absense of evidence is evidence of absense.

Umm, what else would be “evidence of absense”? If we inspected Iceland, would we find anything besides an “absence of evidence”.

The mindset that “an absence of evidence probably just means they’ve gotten better at hiding the evidence” is a pretty obvious logical fallacy.

By: Jay

Jay — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 21:59:28 +0000

I also find how jubilant the left are over this to be disturbing. Suddenly, an absense of evidence is evidence of absense. We are talking about nukes here.

By: Jeff Molby

Jeff Molby — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 21:41:35 +0000

I just wish I could trust it to be true and to be dealt with responsibly by our leaders on both sides of the aisle and in the media.

Me too. Unfortunately, precious few politicians handled the last such situation properly, so I don’t see how I could possibly trust them again.