In the past, our research shows, most libertarians voted Republican—72% for George W. Bush in 2000, for instance, with only 20 percent for Al Gore, and 70% for Republican congressional candidates in 2002. But in 2004, presumably turned off by war, wiretapping, and welfare-state spending sprees, they shifted sharply toward the Democrats. John F. Kerry got 38% of the libertarian vote.

In 2006, libertarians voted 59% to 36% for Republican congressional candidates—a 24-point swing from the 2002 mid-term election. To put this in perspective, front-page stories since the election have reported the dramatic 7-point shift of white conservative evangelicals away from the Republicans. The libertarian vote is about the same size as the religious right vote measured in exit polls, and it is subject to swings more than three times as large.

Republicans can win the South without libertarians. But this was the year that New Hampshire and the Mountain West turned purple if not blue, and libertarians played a big role there. New Hampshire may be the most libertarian state in the country; this year both the state’s Republican congressmen lost.

Are those cheers dubbed in or what? Obama is carrying a whopping 14%, down from 19% just a month ago.

Nah, I’m sure it’s real. Every politician knows enough to keep the size of the audience smaller than the number of die-hards in the area.

BTW, I just watched it again and I must say that it is a darn good commercial. I’m still surprised and disappointed they’re going to air it this soon, but I’m always impressed by good marketing. Watch it from a technical perspective. It’s an incredible job of sending multiple messages, all while prominently displaying a relatively unknown politician’s name.