Do You Think “Pollsters” Are Trying To Be Funny Saying “Boo?”
Posted on October 23, 2006
Mark Memmott, Jill Lawrence and Susan Page, all at USAToday came up with this headline “Poll: GOP could lose control of Congress.” Actually, a lot of things “could” happen. I “could” wake up in the morning with a head full of hair. 
The libertarian party “could” control Congress in January…………..
First they write:
Thirty-eight percent of the 675 likely voters questioned said the U.S. House of Representatives member from their district does not deserve re-election. That number has never been higher. Two weeks ago it stood at 33%.
What does that really mean?
Sixty two percent of the 675 likely voters questioned said the U.S. House of Representatives member from their district deserve re-election.
Next they write:
Asked what will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress, 43% of likely voters said “national issues” — also the highest that figure has reached.
Instead of writing:
57% of likely voters said “local issues” will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress.
Lastly they write:
On the generic question of whether they favor the Democrat or Republican candidate in their district, 54% of likely voters chose the Democrat and 41% the Republican.
And I would like to emphasize a point that they did make, but did not consider in their headline:
That 13 percentage-point gap is well below the 23-point advantage Democrats held in the previous poll
Ergo, disregarding flaws in demographics, Republicans have cut the Democrat “edge” on the “generic ballot” in half in two weeks.
So what does this tell us ? A large majority of voters said their Representative deserves re-election and that the race will be determined on local issues.
Also, Charlie Cook has issued another “poll” and thankfully, I do not have to waste a lot of my time doing a post mortem!!! A longtime reader writes and saves me the rouble from the gruesome task:
Re: the latest Cook poll fiasco:
In the subsamples, we see that the 18-34 age groups is about 12% bigger than the 65+ group. Like that ever happens in real turnout. We see that his “most likely voters” sample voted in this fashion in 2004: Kerry 51%, Bush 45%, a mere 8% skew off that election’s results. We see that his registered voter respondent were 36.8 % I, 32.6% D, and 30.6% R, as if that ever happens in real elections. We see that his “most likely voters” gave the Democrats a 20% lead, while registered voters gave them only a 12% lead, as if the Democrats have EVER done better among likely voters anywhere at anytime, than among registered voters.
And, as ever, this is another weekend poll, including this past Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
B.S, M.S, Ph.D.
Can someone please answer, do these guys carry errors and omissions insurance?
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3 Responses to “Do You Think “Pollsters” Are Trying To Be Funny Saying “Boo?””
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You’re assuming that the question gave only two options. Even then, some people are likely not to answer the question. I don’t have access to the actual poll, but I doubt that your statement is accurate.
Same thing. Your assumptions are probably false.
The poll had a margin of error of +/- 5%. It’s probably safe to assume the previous poll had a similar margin. It’s well within the realm of possibility that the actual opinions of the country didn’t change at all during the two weeks. It probably changed to some degree, but it’s impossible to say with the available data.
I heard it said by a caller on Rush Limbaugh’s show (and I have thought this for a long time) that the media polls have a liberal bias (remember the 2004 exit polls?) and report whatever they want, but to get credibility they need to get closer to the actual results by election time. Otherwise why would anyone pay for their flawed polls?
I believe they weight the statistics to bring about the conclusion they want. That way they can report this as “news” of what’s going to happen and influence those who are too lame to make a decision on their own. (If you don’t think people like this are out there look at how fashionable tattoos and piercings have become by the “follow the leader” crowd!)
But what are the Democrats offering? As one of my liberal friends said last Tuesday, “They’ve got nothing.” and he votes for them!
People don’t vote against things they vote for issues. I think Republicans will win most, if not all of the races.
Unfortunately, no House rep from this state will pay attention to my ‘local issues’ at a federal level.