Newsweak Poll Is Good News For Republicans (After The Disection)!!!
Posted on October 22, 2006
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Well, Newsweak is out with a poll and it is time to “read the bones.” Though it is very difficult to do that because data is so limited.
First there is the partisan breakdown issue:
Of those sampled, 282 identified themselves as Republicans, 349 as Democrats and 330 as Independents.
And the issue that it is not registered voters or likely voters, it “was conducted on Thursday and Friday nights through phone interviews with 1,000 adults.”
Yes, we have “garbage in” but lets look at the “garbage out” because some of it may be a “treasure:”
Likewise, on the war on terror, once President Bush’s signature issue. While Republicans have not restored their perennial lead over the Democrats, equal numbers of Americans trust each party more (40 percent for each.) Two weeks ago, the Democrats held a seven-point advantage. On immigration, 40 percent trust the Dems more, while 34 percent trust the GOP more. Two weeks ago the Democrats held a nine-point lead on that issue.
So, in two weeks Democrats have lost a 7 point advantage on the war on terror and a 9 point advantage on immigration. The message is getting out and we are in the final two week stretch!!! Plus this is based on a sample that is not weighted to reflect the most likely turn out.
We have little detail on where this poll was conducted. Was it nationwide or in a few urban areas? There is a terrible stench coming from the poll and it is found here:
Other parts of a potential Democratic agenda receive less support, especially calls to impeach Bush: 47 percent of Democrats say that should be a “top priority,” but only 28 percent of all Americans say it should be, 23 percent say it should be a lower priority and nearly half, 44 percent, say it should not be done. (Five percent of Republicans say it should be a top priority and 15 percent of Republicans say it should be a lower priority; 78 percent oppose impeachment.)
According to Newsweak, one out of five Republicans stated that “Bush should be impeached.” No way, two weeks before the election will you get Republican voters to say anything like that!!! Hell, Lincoln Chafee would not even back that. It is one of two things and I am not sure which one it is. Either, we have 50 “Kos Democrats” who told the pollster they were Republicans and/or they were Republicans in a very blue area.
My conclusion that the sample is even worse than stated above. In my opinion this sample is 232 Republican, 399 Democrat and 330 independent. If the sample was adjusted by party, it would show that Democrats have 47% support and Republicans have 45% and with that breakdown, Congress stays controlled by Republicans.
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8 Responses to “Newsweak Poll Is Good News For Republicans (After The Disection)!!!”
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Syndicate Me
If the numbers are right then the average is 5.64 to 6.98 individuals from each state, which is hardly enough to represent the voters of that state. If you then apply the idea the Republicans are usually rural and Democrats are usually urban, it further tilts the statistics. The third point is, not every district or state is in play and those areas where one party dominates, will tilt the statistics. This poll is worthless.
Why do they always over-sample Democrats? Every poll I’ve seen since 2001 has an over-sampling of Democrats.
“If the numbers are right then the average is 5.64 to 6.98 individuals from each state, which is hardly enough to represent the voters of that state.”
In a random sample of 1,000 persons, the margin of error is +/- 4 percent. Period. This holds true whether the population of the whole (in this case, the U.S.) is 10,000, 10 million or 10 trillion.
Had 10,000 or even 100,000 Americans been randomly polled, the margin of error would not shrink considerably.
kerwin_brown doesn’t understand the first thing about statistics and should read this. His comment is worthless.
Polls like these are the least of our concerns. We can tear apart liberal polls all day long. What we need to be concerned about is all of this negativism going on amongst Republicans. I have explained this in a new post which I will link to and trackback. I really wish you all would read it. Republicans Push For Lower Republican Turnout
Hey, good work. Rush just read from your analysis.
You gotta be kidding!
Great anaylsis.
When I think of polls, I think of the 2004 exit polls during the Presidential election. You remember the ones….. 75% of exiting voters said they voted for Kerry. Turns out it was pure rubbish and the opposite was true.
DON’T TRUST THE POLLS.
I’ll have to pull the segment from my I-pod when I download Rush’s show today.
Great job and keep up the good work!
Paul Yanna,
I understand elections and if things worked out the way you say we would be electing the same person in every distinct for the House and in every state for the Senate. It does not work that way so I stick by what I stated earlier. You need to refresh yourself on how statistics are properly applied.